DES MOINES, IOWA (DTN) -- Despite lower sow numbers, Ever.Ag chief economist Lee Schulz said pork production hasn't decreased because of larger litters and market hogs being fed to heavier weights.

Schulz, speaking recently at the World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa, predicted hog producers will see breakeven again by August, and profitability this year.

This is welcome after the serious lows in 2023. Schulz said 2024 was one of the better years for pork producers, but that doesn't tell the whole story, since they were still recovering from the lows the year before. He said 100 federally inspected packing plants were added, killing under 1,000 head per year; however, while there were more plants, the actual overall capacity hasn't changed with some larger plants closing doors.

"We are certainly in a healthier spot today than the last couple years," he said. "Consumer demand continues to be in a good spot historically, even though it is below levels from the past four years."

Pork exports are forecasted to be down 0.8% for 2025, but Schulz said that compares it to a record high of 3.03 million metric tons of pork in 2024. The forecast is also for a 1.2% increase in 2026. The data shows the U.S. is running near record exports that were seen last year with value continuing to support profits. He said this is a lot better situation than some may have thought with all the discussion in the news about exports.

"The U.S. has surpassed the European Union for the first time since 2014 as the major exporter worldwide. That division is expected to widen a bit in 2025," he said. "The dollar index is down about 9% compared to our major customers and major competitors; we've seen their currency get stronger, relative to ours, so that provides them with more purchasing power or made us more competitive on the world market. This has been supportive of our exports."

Packer margins are a piece of the profit puzzle as well according to Schulz. These margins are about $6 per head lower than 2024. This allows more profitability on the live animal production side of the industry. Hog prices are going up, but have a ways to go to get to the 2022 mark of $97.47 per hundredweight (cwt), which is the second highest to 2014's $102.63/cwt.

VARIABLE FARROW-TO-FINISH RETURNS

Returns on farrow-to-finish operations in Iowa through the years has seen variability, with 2023 going down as the worst in history with a $31.56 loss per head. The loss was cut to $1.09 per head in 2024 and is expected to rebound to a $15.31-per-head profit in 2025. This is seen as all costs have increased except feed, which have been on the decline.

"It's not surprising to not see an increase in production with these losses," said Schulz. "Thankfully, there are many tools available to allow producers to lock in a profit and not give up on the upside."

The breeding herd at the end of 2024 was just over 6 million head, which is the smallest since 2015. Productivity of the sows continues to increase and break records at nearly 12 pigs per litter on average. This leads to a forecast of a 0.7% increase in pork production.

Joe Kerns, founder of Ag Rubicon, said at the World Pork Expo that 2025 looks to be off to a decent start for crop production, with a prediction of trend-line yields for corn and similar results for soybeans.

"Weather can change the crops a bit and the forecast for higher temperatures can affect livestock gains, also," he said. Prices for corn and soybeans are expected to increase for the coming year, which Kerns said he expects will affect pork production.

Kerns doesn't expect the U.S. to export more corn this year unless the price goes way down and other countries are financially more drawn to buy it.

He said the U.S. continues to increase acreage each year on the grain side. This year exports are nearly the same as the previous year.

"There is nothing to panic about as a pork producer. The cost of production, I think, is not going to be anything to rock your boat," he added.

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

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